Google Scholar Page of Andrea Saltelli

ORCID Page of Andrea Saltelli

(In Italian) Andrea Saltelli, Gemelli digitali del pianeta? No grazie - Una riflessione sui "futuri simulati", Controversie, October 1.

Andrea Saltelli, Arnald Puy, Alessio Lachi, and Nate Breznau, 2024, Global sensitivity analysis unveils the hidden universe of uncertainty in multiverse studies, MetaArXiv Preprints, https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/b67w9.

Andrea Saltelli, 2024, Foreword: Does it need to be this way? In Sensitivity Analysis for Business, Technology, and Policymaking Made Easy with Simulation Decomposition (SimDec) Edited ByMariia Kozlova, and Julian Scott Yeomans.

Andrea Saltelli, 2024, Digital Twins of the Earth: Science or Pseudoscience? - a guest post in the blog The Honest Broker of Roger Pielke Jr.

Lo Piano, S., & Saltelli, A. (2024). Energy Policy-Making in the European Union: Between Past and Present. SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4945510.

Saltelli, A., Gigerenzer, G., Hulme, M., Katsikopoulos, K., Melsen, L. A., Glen, P., Pielke, J., Roger A., Robertson, S., Stirling, A., Tavoni, M., & Puy, A. (2024). Bring Digital Twins Back to Earth. WIRES Climate Change, e915. http://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.915.

------Highlight University of Birmingham.

Vannucci, G., Siciliano, R., & Saltelli, A. (2024). Enhancing Variable Importance in Random Forests: A Novel Application of Global Sensitivity Analysis (arXiv:2407.14194). arXiv. http://arxiv.org/abs/2407.14194.

Kasper P. Kepp et al. (66 authors), Panel stacking is a threat to consensus statement validity, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology Volume 173, September 2024, 111428.

Saltelli, A., Puy, A., & Di Fiore, M. (2024). Mathematical models: a state of exception. International Review of Applied Economics, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2024.2365727.

A. Saltelli, The Impossible Moderation of Pardo-Guerra. A Review of Juan Pablo Pardo-Guerra’s The Quantified Scholar. How Research Evaluation Transformed the British Social Sciences, Sociologica Vol. 17 No. 3 (2023), https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.1971-8853/17596.

Tarantola S., F. Ferretti, S. Lo Piano, M. Kozlova, A. Lachi, R. Rosati, A. Puy, P. Roy, G. Vannucci, M. Kuc-Czarnecka and A. Saltelli, 2024, An annotated timeline of sensitivity analysis. Environmental Modelling and Software.

Puy, Arnald, Pamphile T. Roy, and Andrea Saltelli. 2024. ‘Discrepancy Measures for Global Sensitivity Analysis’. Technometrics 0 (ja): 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2024.2304341.

Samuele Lo Piano, Máté János Lőrincz, Arnald Puy, Steve Pye, Andrea Saltelli, Stefán Thor Smith, Jeroen van der Sluijs, November 2023, Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making, Risk Analysis, 44, (6), 1273-1284, doi.org/10.1111/risa.14248.

A. Saltelli, ‘What is Post-normal Science? A Personal Encounter’, Foundations of Science, Published: 10 November 2023, DOI 10.1007/s10699-023-09932-x.

A. Saltelli, ‘Teaching scientific research integrity: A case study’, Innovations in Education and Teaching International, vol. 0, no. 0, pp. 1–14, Jul. 2023, doi: 10.1080/14703297.2023.2237949.

Comment: Irrigation modelling needs better epistemology, Arnald Puy, Michela Massimi, Bruce Lankford & Andrea Saltelli, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published: 29 June 2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00459-0.

Andrea Saltelli, Joachim P. Sturmberg, Daniel Sarewitzc, John P.A. Ioannidis, 2023, What did COVID-19 really teach us about science, evidence and society? Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 29(8), https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.13876.

Saltelli, Andrea, and Arnald Puy. 2023. ‘What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to a Sociology of Quantification?’ Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 10 (213). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4212453.

Dennis Eversberg, Philip Koch, Rosa Lehmann, Andrea Saltelli, Sabaheta Ramcilovic-Suominen & Zora Kovacic , 2023, The more things change, the more they stay the same: promises of bioeconomy and the economy of promises, Sustainability Science (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-023-01321-4.

Arnald Puy, Pamphile T. Roy, Andrea Saltelli, 2023, Discrepancy measures for sensitivity analysis, ArXiv https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13470.

Andrea Saltelli, How to teach research integrity? (February 21, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/.

Saltelli, Andrea, Marta Kuc-Czarnecka, Samuele Lo Piano, Máté János Lőrincz, Magdalena Olczyk, Arnald Puy, Erik Reinert, Stefán Thor Smith, and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs. 2023. Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new? Environmental Science & Policy 142: 99–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2023.02.005.

===In the news from the University of Birmingham.

===In the news from the University of Reading.

===In the news from the UPF Barcelona School of management.

Saltelli, Andrea, What Is Post-normal Science? A Personal Encounter (November 8, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4271572 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4271572 .

Monica Di Fiore, Marta Kuc‑Czarnecka, Samuele Lo Piano, Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli, 2022, The Challenge of Quantification: An Interdisciplinary Reading, Minerva 61, 53–70 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007.

Puy, Arnald, Pierfrancesco Beneventano, Simon A. Levin, Samuele Lo Piano, Tommaso Portaluri, and Andrea Saltelli. 2022. ‘Models with Higher Effective Dimensions Tend to Produce More Uncertain Estimates’. Science Advances 8 (eabn9450).

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Number-crunching math models may give policy makers major headache
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Number-crunching math models may give policy makers major headache
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Number-crunching math models may give policy makers major headache
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Les modèles mathématiques de calcul numérique peuvent donner des maux de tête aux décideurs politiques
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Zahlenverarbeitende mathematische Modelle können politischen Entscheidungsträgern große Kopfschmerzen vorbereiten
Aus Der Welt Germany
https://ausderwelt.de/zahlenverarbeitende-mathematische-modelle-koennen-politischen-entscheidungstraegern-grosse-kopfschmerzen-vorbereiten/

Number-crunching math models may give policy makers major headache
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Number-crunching maths models may give policy makers major headache
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Number-crunching math models may give policy makers major headache
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Number-crunching math models may give policy makers a major headache
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Number-crunching math models may give policy makers major headache
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Maths models may give policy makers major headache
University of Reading
https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2022/Research-News/Mathematical-modelling

Samuele Lo Piano, Razi Sheikholeslami, Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli, Unpacking the modelling process via sensitivity auditing, FUTURES, Volume 144, December 2022, 103041.

Andrea Saltelli, Alexandra Theben, and Rosario Scandurra, Smashing the glasshouse. Diminishing the prestige of measures of higher education, SocArXiv, 14 Oct. 2022.

Saltelli, Andrea and Puy, Arnald, What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to a Sociology of Quantification? (September 7, 2022). Available at SSRN https://ssrn.com/abstract=4212453.

Also downloadable here.

Arnald Puy, and Andrea Saltelli, 2022, Discrepancy measures for sensitivity analysis in mathematical modeling, Andrea, available as arXiv:2206.13470.

Andrea Saltelli, Erik S. Reinert. ‘Physiocracy, Guillotines, and Antisemitism?’ Did economics emulate the wrong Enlightenment?
Chapter to appear in 2023 in "A Modern Guide to Uneven Economic Development", Edited by Erik Reiner and Ingrid Kvangraven, Edward Elgar Publishing, available of SSRN.

Also downloadable here.

Saltelli, Andrea and Kuc Czarnecka, Marta and Lo Piano, Samuele and János Lőrincz, Máté and Olczyk, Magdalena and Puy, Arnald and Reinert, Erik and Smith, Stefán Thor and van der Sluijs, Jeroen, A New Gaze for Impact Assessment Practices in the European Union (July 7, 2022). Also available at SSRN.

Arnald Puy, Razi Sheikholeslami, Hoshin V. Gupta, Jim W. Hall, Bruce Lankford, Samuele Lo Piano, Jonas Meier, Florian Pappenberger, Amilcare Porporato, Giulia Vico & Andrea Saltelli, The delusive accuracy of global irrigation water withdrawal estimates, Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 3183 (2022).

==========Press release UIB.

==========Press release Reading.

==========Press release Oxford.

Andrea Saltelli and Daniel Sarewitz, 2022, Reformation in the Church of Science. How the truth monopoly was broken up. The New Atlantis, issue Spring 2022.

Puy, Arnald, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, and Simon A. Levin. 2022. “Sensobol: An R Package to Compute Variance-Based Sensitivity Indices.” Journal of Statistical Software 102 (5). https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v102i05.

Lo Piano S, Borgonovo E, Puy A, Saltelli A, Walsh J, Vidoni D (2022) Improving the reliability of cohesion policy databases. PLoS ONE 17(4): e0266823. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266823.

Olczyk, M., Kuc-Czarnecka, M., & Saltelli, A. (2022). Changes in the Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 Methodology: The Improved Approach of Competitiveness Benchmarking. Journal of Competitiveness, 14(1), 118–135. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2022.01.07.

Andrea Saltelli, 2022, Reckoning with uncertainty, social sciences lessons for mathematical modeling, in "Mathematics for action: supporting science-based decision-making", UNESCO [62236], 2022, Dhersin, Jean-Stéphane, Kaper, Hans, Ndifon, Wilfred, Roberts, Fred, Rousseau, Christiane, Ziegler, Günter M., Editors.
------------------------------Full publication

Puy, Arnald, Bruce Lankford, Jonas Meier, Saskia van der Kooij, and Andrea Saltelli. 2022. “Large Variations in Global Irrigation Withdrawals Caused by Uncertain Irrigation Efficiencies.” Environmental Research Letters, Volume 17, Number 4. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5768.

Arnald Puy, William Becker, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, 2022, A comprehensive comparison of total-order estimators for global sensitivity analysis, International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification, 2(2):1–18, DOI:10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2021038133 .

Saltelli, Andrea, Dorothy J. Dankel, Monica Di Fiore, Nina Holland, and Martin Pigeon, “Science, the Endless Frontier of Regulatory Capture.” Futures, 135 (2022) 102860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102860.

======= Review in Spanish": Los guardianes de la razón: Fact check, captura cultural e imaginario sociotécnico. Por Abel Novoa, June 09, 2021

======= Capitolo di Elisa Lello e Andrea Saltelli: Nuove frontiere del lobbismo scientifico e dirottamento dello spazio pubblico, versione draft Aprile 2022.

Samuele Lo Piano, Máté János Lőrincz, Arnald Puy, Steve Pye, Andrea Saltelli, Stefán Thor Smith, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, “Unpacking uncertainty in the modelling process for energy policy making, ArXiv:2111.00782.

A. Saltelli, “Comunicazione scientifica: un campo di battaglia?,” Arco Giano, vol. 109, pp. 94–102, Autunno 2021.

Paolo Vineis, Andrea Saltelli, 2021, The Immunity Capital, Argumenta 7, 1, 109-116.

Annibale Biggeri, Andrea Saltelli, 2021, The Strange Numbers of Covid-19, Argumenta 7, 1, 97-107.

A. Saltelli, A. J. Jakeman, S. Razavi, and Q. Wu, “Sensitivity analysis: A discipline coming of age,” Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 146, no. 105226, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105226.

Arnald Puy, Emanuele Borgonovo, Samuele Lo Piano, Simon A. Levin & Andrea Saltelli, Irrigated areas drive irrigation water withdrawals. Nature Communications, 12, 4525 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24508-8.

Andrea Saltelli, Monica Di Fiore, Francesco Spanò, 2021. “Physics to the rescue?” arXiv.org - physics - arXiv:2107.07239, Available online 16 July 2021.

Kuc-Czarnecka, Marta, Andrea Saltelli, Magdalena Olczyk, and Erik S. Reinert. 2021. “The Opening of Central and Eastern European Countries to Free Trade: A Critical Assessment.” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Available online 2 May 2021.

Altered States: Cartesian and Ricardian dreams, Erik Reinert and Andrea Saltelli, 14 April 2021, blog of Uncomfortable Knowledge Hub (UKH).

Reinert E.S., Di Fiore M., Saltelli A., Ravetz J.R. (2021). Altered States: Cartesian and Ricardian dreams. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series (IIPP WP 2021/07). Available at: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/wp2021-07.

William Becker, Paolo Paruolo and Andrea Saltelli, 2021, Variable Selection in Regression Models Using Global Sensitivity Analysis, Journal of Time Series Econometrics, https://doi.org/10.1515/jtse-2018-0025

Saltelli, Andrea and Dankel, Dorothy and Di Fiore, Monica and Holland, Nina and Pigeon, Martin, Science, the Endless Frontier of Regulatory Capture (March 1, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3795058 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3795058.

Saltelli, A., Di Fiore, M., 2021. Is Time Ripe for an Ethic of Quantification? SSRN Electron. J., https://ssrn.com/abstract=3772676.

Excerpts from A CLIMATE OF DIALOGUE[*] published on the blog of Judith Curry.

[*] Andrea Saltelli and Paul-Marie Boulanger, 2020, A CLIMATE OF DIALOGUE, in DIMENSIONS OF INTRA- AND INTERGENERATIONAL JUSTICE IN THE DEBATES ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY, Silvija Serafimova Editor, published by Avangard Prima, Sofia. ISBN 978-619-239-433-2

Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, Simon A. Levin, 2021, sensobol: an R package to compute variance-based sensitivity indices, arXiv:2101.10103 [stat.CO].

Saltelli, A., Andreoni, A., Drechsler W., Ghosh, J., Kattel, R., Kvangraven, I. H., Rafols, I., Reinert, E. S., Stirling, A. and Xu, T. (2021). Why ethics of quantification is needed now. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series (IIPP WP 2021/05).

Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, 2021, Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol' indices?, Environmental Modelling & Software Available online 18 January 2021, 104960.

Razavi, S., Jakeman, A., Saltelli, A., Prieur, C., Iooss, B., Borgonovo, E., … Maier, H. R. (2021). The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An Essential Discipline for Systems Modeling and Policy Support. Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 137, March 2021, 104954 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104954.

Samuele Lo Piano, Federico Ferretti, Arnald Puy, Daniel Albrecht, Andrea Saltelli, 2021, Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Volume 206, February 2021, 107300 .

George F. De Martino, Ilene Grabel, Helga Nowotny, Andrea Saltelli and Brian Wynne: responses to "Control in Crisis: A DISCUSSION OF COVID-19 and the Futility of Control in the Modern World", by Andrew Stirling, Ian Scoones, Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. XXXVII, No. 1, Fall 2020.

Isabelle Bruno, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Statistiques et modèles mathématiques : doit-on les laisser nous gouverner ? , The Conversation (FR), September 6, 2020.

Arnald Puy, William Becker, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, The battle of total-order sensitivity estimators, arXiv.org, arXiv:2009.01147.

Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore, 2020, From sociology of quantification to ethics of quantification, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00557-0.
====>Translated into Castilian as: Saltelli, A., Di Fiore, M. (2020). De la sociología a la ética de la cuantificación. eHS BigData, 1, eHSBD15.

A. Saltelli, G. Bammer, I. Bruno, E. Charters, M. Di Fiore, E. Didier, W. Nelson Espeland, J. Kay, S. Lo Piano, D. Mayo, R.J. Pielke, T. Portaluri, T.M. Porter, A. Puy, I. Rafols, J.R. Ravetz, E. Reinert, D. Sarewitz, P.B. Stark, A. Stirling, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, P. Vineis, Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, Nature 582 (2020) 482–484.

COVID-19: Perché i numeri sbagliano, di Monica Di Fiore, Tommaso Portaluri, Andrea Saltelli, Paolo Vineis, LIVE, supplemento mensile de La Repubblica, July 30, 2020.

Per un'etica dei numeri e dei modelli COVID-19/Filosofia, 08/07/2020, di Andrea Saltelli, Tommaso Portaluri, Monica Di Fiore, Paolo Vineis, Luca Carra, Scienza in Rete.

M. Di Fiore, T. Portaluri, A. Saltelli, 6 Luglio 2020, Cinque modi per garantire che i modelli servano la società, ROARS.

A. Saltelli, Tommaso Portaluri, Mal fare, dir vero? Per una scienza con la ‘s’ minuscola, ROARS, May 11, 2020.

A. Saltelli, 2020, Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics?, FUTURES, Volume 116, February 2020, 102509.

Paul-Marie Boulanger, Andrea Saltelli, Pandemic Luhmann, on SSRN: SSRN-id3586526.
... also on Zenodo, https://zenodo.org/record/3782316. --- To be cited as: Paul-Marie Boulanger, Andrea Saltelli, Pandemic Luhmann, 2020, Law & Humanities eJournal Vol 24, Issue 21, May 07.

Monica Di Fiore, Tommaso Portaluri, Andrea Saltelli, 2020, Post-verità e scienza, Federalismi.it, 11, 110-124.

A. Puy, S. Lo Piano, A. Saltelli, 2020, Current models underestimate future irrigated areas, Geophysical Research Letters, Open access, Volume 47, Issue 8, doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087360.

Postnormal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science, guest post on STEPS by David Waltner-Toews, Annibale Biggeri, Bruna De Marchi, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Martin O’Connor, Jerome R. Ravetz, Andrea Saltelli and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs.

Spanish version. --- Italian version. --- Portuguese version. --- French version.

Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index, Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 127, May 2020, 104679.

Andrea Saltelli, Lorenzo Benini, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Matthias Kaiser, Erik Reinert, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, 2020, The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability, Environmental Science and Policy, Volume 106, Pages 87-98.

Kuc-Czarnecka, M., Lo Piano, S. and Saltelli, A. (2020) ‘Quantitative storytelling in the making of a composite indicator’, Social Indicators Research, 149(3), 775-802, 2020.

Andrea Saltelli and Paul Marie Boulanger, 2020: "Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex?", FUTURES, Volume 115, January 2020, 102491, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.102491.

Siddharth Sareen, Andrea Saltelli and Kjetil Rommetveit, Ethics of quantification: illumination, obfuscationand performative legitimation.

Arnald Puy, Emanuele Borgonovo, Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli, Are the results of the groundwater model robust? ArXiv.org/abs/1912.10814.

(Guest post): What can we learn from the debate on statistical significance? Posted on November 22, 2019 on errorstatistics.com, the blog of statistician Deborah Mayo.

Andrea Saltelli, 2019, A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling, Nature Communications, 10, Article number: 3870, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11865-8.

Andrea Saltelli, 2019, Smettiamola di fingere: quantificare non è un’operazione neutrale (Drop the act: quantification is never neutral), Epidemiologia e Prevenzione, 43 (2-3):121-123.

Samuele Lo Piano, Andrea Saltelli and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, 2019, Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis, Frontiers in Energy Research, 14 June 2019, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2019.00056.

Views from a continent in flux. Nature asked nine leading Europeans to pick their top priority for science at this pivotal point. Love, money, and trust got most votes; by Carlos Moedas, Isabelle Vernos, Stephan Kuster, Helga Nowotny, Andrea Saltelli, Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, Jan Wouter Vasbinder, Daniel R. Brooks & Patrick Cunningham, Nature 569, 481-484 (2019)

Here as published on the paper version of Nature

Andrea Saltelli, Ksenia Aleksankina, William Becker, Pamela Fennell, Federico Ferretti, Niels Holst, Sushan Li, Qiongli Wu, Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: a systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices, Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 114, April 2019, Pages 29-39.

2021 Most Cited Research Paper Award.pdf

2021 Most Downloaded Research Paper Award.pdf.

English translation of the piece from JON KÅRE TIME in Morgenbladet (published in Norwegian June 14, 2018): An interview to Andrea Saltelli and Daniele Fanelli on science's crisis.

Andrea Saltelli, 2018, Discussion Paper: Should statistics rescue mathematical modelling? ArXiv https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.06457.

Andrea Saltelli, 2018, Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground, FUTURES, vol. 104, p. 85-90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.07.006.

Andrea Saltelli, 2018, Debate: Donald Trump’s war on science and its long-lasting consequences. The Conversation, July 11.

Roger Strand, Andrea Saltelli, Mario Giampietro, Kjetil Rommetveit, Silvio Funtowicz, 2018, New narratives for innovation, Journal of Cleaner Production Volume 197, Part 2, 1 October 2018, Pages 1849-1853.

Philip B. Stark and Andrea Saltelli, Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis, SIGNIFICANCE, 05 July 2018.

Reinert, E. and Saltelli, A., Debate: What is missing in the ‘33 Theses for an Economics Reformation’, The Conversation, March 29, 2018.

Saltelli, A., Lo Piano, S. , 2018, Doing the Sum Right or the Right Sums? Techno-Optimist Numbers in Food Security Scenarios, Front. Sustain. Food Syst., 14 March 2018 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2018.00006

Saltelli, A., Stark, P., 2018, Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue, Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-018-00647-9

Saltelli, A., Gothenburg’s summit for fair jobs and growth: a new narrative for Europe? The Conversation, January 8, 2018.

Saltelli, A., Science’s credibility crisis: why it will get worse before it can get better, The Conversation, November 9, 2017.

Saltelli, A., Philip Stark, Statistiche al tempo della crisi, Epidemiologia e Prevenzione (in Italian): 2017; 41 (3-4): 165-169.

Andrea Saltelli, A., and Lo Piano, S., 2017, Problematic quantifications: a critical appraisal of scenario making for a global ‘sustainable’ food production, Food Ethics, 1(2), p. 173–179.

William Becker , Paolo Paruolo, Michaela Saisana, Andrea Saltelli, Weights and Importance in Composite Indicators: Mind the Gap, in Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification, Editors: Roger Ghanem, David Higdon, Houman Owhadi, ISBN: 978-3-319-12384-4 (Print) 978-3-319-12385-1, pp 1187-1216.
Here a draft on Research Gate.

Saltelli, A., International PISA tests show how evidence-based policy can go wrong, The Conversation, June 12, 2017

Andrea Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz, 2017, What is science’s crisis really about? FUTURES, Volume 91, Pages 5-11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.010

Saltelli, A., Giampietro, M., Gomiero, T., Forcing consensus is bad for science and society, The Conversation, May 11, 2017.

Andrea Saltelli, Daniel Albrecht, Stefano Tarantola and Federico Ferretti, 2017, A new sample-based algorithm to compute the total sensitivity index, arXiv:1703.05799 [stat.AP]

Luisa Araújo, Andrea Saltelli, Sylke V. Schnepf, 2017, Do PISA data justify PISA-based education policy?, International Journal of Comparative Education and Development, Volume 19, Issue 1, p. 1-17.

DRAFT

Saltelli, A., Scientists’ march on Washington is a bad idea – here’s why, The Conversation, March 8, 2017 7.54am GMT

Ângela Guimarães Pereira, Andrea Saltelli, 2017, Post-normal Institutional Identities: Quality Assurance, Reflexivity and Ethos of Care? Futures, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.11.009

Andrea Saltelli, Mario Giampietro, 2017, What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures, 91, 62-71.

A. Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz, 2107, To tackle the post-truth world, science must reform itself, The Conversation, January 27

Republished on the Huffington Post.

Andrea Saltelli, 2016, "Young Statistician, You shall live adventurous times", SIGNIFICANCE (The Royal Statistical Society), December 2016, Volume 13, Issue 6, (pages 38–41)

Andrea Saltelli, Silvio Funtowicz, Science wars in the age of Donald Trump, November 16, 2016, The Conversation.

Andrea Saltelli, Science in crisis: from the sugar scam to Brexit, our faith in experts is fading, September 27, 2016, The Conversation.

Andrea Saltelli, and Silvio Funtowicz, “Science cannot solve these problems alone because it helped to create them in the first place”, The Guardian, July 14.

Extended version of the piece

Andrea Saltelli, Jerome R. Ravetz and Silvio Funtowicz, A new community for science, NEW SCIENTIST, issue 3079, p. 53, 22 June 2016.

Print version.

Alessandro Galli , Mario Giampietro , Steve Goldfinger , Elias Lazarus , David Lin , Andrea Saltelli , Matthis Wackernagel , Felix Müller, 2016, Questioning the ecological footprint , Ecological Indicators, 69, 224–232.

Same paper on this web site.

Saltelli, A., Funtowicz, S., Giampietro, M., Sarewitz, D., Stark, P.B., van der Sluijs, J.P., 2016, Climate costing is politics not science, Nature, 14 April, 532, 177.

Ferretti, F., Saltelli A., Tarantola, S., 2016, Trends in Sensitivity Analysis practice in the last decade, Science of the Total Environment, 568, 666-670.

William Becker, Paolo Paruolo, Andrea Saltelli, Exploring Hoover and Perez's experimental designs using global sensitivity analysis.

Ravetz, R. and Saltelli, A., 2015, Policy: The future of public trust in science, Nature, 524, p. 161.
Here in draft copy

Saltelli, A., Stark, P.B., Becker, W., and Stano, P. , 2015, Climate Models as Economic Guides. Scientific Challenge or Quixotic Quest? Issues in Science and Technology (IST), Volume XXXI Issue 3, Spring 2015.

Giampietro, M., and Saltelli, A., 2014, Footworking in Circles, Reply to Goldfinger at al. (2014) “Footprint Facts and Fallacies: A Response to Giampietro and Saltelli (2014) Footprints to nowhere”, Ecological Indicators, 46, 260–263. Exploring multi-dimensional spaces: a Comparison of Latin Hypercube and Quasi Monte Carlo Sampling Techniques Sergei Kucherenko, Daniel Albrecht, Andrea Saltelli

Giampietro, M., and Saltelli, A., 2014, Footprints to nowhere, Ecological Indicators, 46, 610–621.

Saltelli, A., Funtowicz, S., 2014, When all models are wrong: More stringent quality criteria are needed for models used at the science-policy interface, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 2014, 79-85.
Here at the journal's site.

Sergei Kucherenko, Daniel Albrecht, Andrea Saltelli., 2015, Exploring multi-dimensional spaces: a Comparison of Latin Hypercube and Quasi Monte Carlo Sampling Techniques, arXiv:1505.02350 [stat.AP].

Saltelli, A., Guimarães Pereira, Â., Van der Sluijs, J.P. and Funtowicz, S., 2013, ‘What do I make of your latinorum? Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling’, Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, (9), 2/3/4, 213–234.

Paruolo, P., Saisana, A., Saltelli, A., 2013, Ratings and rankings: Voodoo or Science? Journal Royal Statistical Society A, 176 (3), 609–634.

Gardi, C., Jeffery, S. Saltelli, A., 2013, An Estimate of Potential Threats Levels to Soil Biodiversity in EU, 2012, Global Change Biology, 19(5), 1538–1548.

Saltelli, A., M. Ratto, S. Tarantola and F. Campolongo, 2012 (Perennial Review of the 2005 paper), Sensitivity Analysis for Chemical Models, Chemical Reviews, 112 (5), pp PR1–PR21.

Saisana, M., D’Hombres, B., and Saltelli, A., Rickety Numbers: Volatility of university rankings and policy implications, 2011, Research Policy, 40 165–177.

Saisana, M. and Saltelli, M., 2011, Rankings and ratings: instructions for use, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law. 3, 247-268.

Saltelli, A., D’Hombres, B., Jesinghaus, J., Manca, A., Mascherini, M., Nardo, M., and Saisana, M., 2011, Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as usual?, Social Indicators Research, 102(2), 197-207.

Campolongo F, Saltelli A, Cariboni, J, 2011, From screening to quantitative sensitivity analysis. A unified approach, Computer Physics Communication. 182 (4), pp. 978-988.

Saltelli, A., Annoni, P., 2010, How to avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis, Environmental Modeling and Software, 25, 1508-1517.

Saltelli, A., D’Hombres, B., Sensitivity analysis didn't help. A practitioner's critique of the Stern review, 2010, Global Environmental Change, 20, 298-302.

Saltelli, A., Annoni, P., Azzini, I., Campolongo, F., Ratto, M., Tarantola, S., 2010, Variance based sensitivity analysis of model output. Design and estimator for the total sensitivity index, Computer Physics Communications, 181, 259–270.

Hall, J. W., Boyce, S. A., Wang, Y., Dawson, R. J., Tarantola, S., & Saltelli, A. (2009). Sensitivity Analysis for Hydraulic Models. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 135(11), 959–969. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000098.

Saltelli, A., Campolongo, F. Cariboni, J., 2009, Screening important inputs in models with strong interaction properties, Reliability Engineering & System Safety 94 (7), 1149-1155.

Scollo, S., Tarantola, S., Bonadonna, C., Coltelli, M., & Saltelli, A. (2008). Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation for tephra dispersal models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 113(B6). doi:10.1029/2006JB004864.

J.Cariboni, Gatelli D., Liska R. and Saltelli A. (2007) The Role Of Sensitivity Analysis In Ecological Modelling, Ecological Modelling, 2007, 2 0 3, 167–182.

A. Saltelli, 2006, Composite indicators between analysis and advocacy, Social Indicators Research, 2007, 81 , 65-77.

Andrea Saltelli, Marco Ratto, Stefano Tarantola, Francesca Campolongo, Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference, 2006, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 91, (10-11), 1109-1125.

Saisana M., Saltelli A., Tarantola S. (2005) Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis techniques as tools for the quality assessment of composite indicators, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - A, 168(2), 307-323.

Toshimitsu HOMMA and Andrea SALTELLI, 2005, Use of Sobol's Quasirandom Sequence Generator for Integration of Modified Uncertainty Importance Measure, Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 32:11, 1164-1173.

Andrea Saltelli & Silvio Funtowicz (2005) The Precautionary Principle: Implications for Risk Management Strategies, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 11:1, 69-83.

Saltelli, A., 2004, Sensitivity analysis: Could better methods be used? JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 104, NO. D3, PAGES 3789-3793.

... and its errata corrige.

E. Borgonovo, G.E. Apostolakis, S. Tarantola,, A. Saltelli, 2003, Comparison of global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in PSA, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 79, 175–185.

Andrea Saltelli, comment (p.359) to M. C. Kennedy and A. O’Hagan, “Bayesian calibration of computer models,” J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol., vol. 63, no. 3, pp. 425–464, 2001, doi: 10.1111/1467-9868.00294.

Saltelli A. Tarantola S., 2002, On the relative importance of input factors in mathematical models: safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal, Journal of American Statistical Association, 97 (459), 702-709.

Saltelli A., 2002, Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices, Computer Physics Communications, 145, 280-297.

Saltelli A., 2002, Sensitivity Analysis for Importance Assessment, Risk Analysis, 22 (3), 1-12.

Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S. Campolongo, F., 2000, Sensitivity analysis as an ingredient of modelling, Statistical Science, 15(4), 377-395.

David Draper, Antonio Pereira, Pedro Prado, Andrea Saltelli, Ryan Cheal, Sonsoles Eguilior, Bruno Mendes, Stefano Tarantola, 1999, Scenario and parametric uncertainty in GESAMAC. A methodological study in nuclear waste disposal risk assessment, Computer Physics Communications, Volume 117, Issues 1–2, 1 March 1999, Pages 142-155.

F. Campolongo , S. Tarantola, A. Saltelli, 1999, Tackling quantitatively large dimensionality problems, Computer Physics Communications, Volume 117, Issues 1–2, 1 March 1999, Pages 75–85.

Saltelli A., Tarantola S., and Chan K., 1999, A quantitative, model independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output, Technometrics, 41(1), 39-56.

Campolongo, F., Saltelli, A., Jensen, N., Wilson, J., & Hjorth, J. (1999). The Role of Multiphase Chemistry in the Oxidation of Dimethylsulphide (DMS). A Latitude Dependent Analysis. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 32, 327–356.

Saltelli, Andrea, S Tarantola, and K Chan. 1999. ‘A Role for Sensitivity Analysis in Presenting the Results from MCDA Studies to Decision Makers’. Journal of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis 8 (3).

Saltelli A., and Bolado R., 1998, An alternative way to compute Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST), Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 26(4) 445-460.

Archer, G., Saltelli, A. and Sobol', I. M., 1997, Sensitivity measures, ANOVA like techniques and the use of bootstrap. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 58, 99-120.

Homma T., and Saltelli A., 1996 , Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of model output, 1996, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 52 No. 1 1-17.

Homma, T., Saltelli, A., 1995 ,Use of Sobol's Quasirandom Sequence Generator for Integration of Modified Uncertainty, Journal of NUCLEAR SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY, 32 [11], pp.1164-1173.

Saltelli, A., Andres T.H., and Homma T., 1995, Sensitivity Analysis of model output. Performance of the Iterated Fractional Factorial Design (IFFD) method, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 20, 387-407.

A. Saltelli, I.M. Sobol’, About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 50 (1995) 225–239.

Saltelli A. and Hjorth J., 1995, Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of OH-initiated dimethylsulphide (DMS) oxidation kinetics, Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 21, 187-221.

Saltelli A., Andres T. H. and Homma T., 1993, Some new techniques in sensitivity analysis of model output, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 15, 211.

Saltelli, A. and T. Homma, Sensitivity analysis for model output, Performance of black-box techniques on three international benchmark exercises, Computational Statististics Data Analysis, 13 (1992) 73-94.

Raes, F., Saltelli, A., & Van Dingenen, R. (1992). Modelling formation and growth of H2SO4-H2O aerosols: Uncertainty analysis and experimental evaluation. Journal of Aerosol Science, 23(7), 759–771.

Saltelli, A., & Marivoet, J. (1990). Non-parametric statistics in sensitivity analysis for model output: A comparison of selected techniques. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 28(2), 229–253.

• Saltelli A., and Sobol' I. M., 1995, Sensitivity analysis for nonlinear mathematical models: numerical experience, Matematicheskoye Modelirovaniye, 7(11) 16-28 (in Russian).
• A. Saltelli, A., and Marivoet, J., 1988, Safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal. Some observations about actual risk calculations, Radioactive Waste Management and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, 9 (4), 1988.
• Saltelli, A., Stanners, D.A., and D’ Alessandro, M., Editors, 1989, Risk Analysis in Nuclear Waste Management, Kluwer, Dodrecht.
• Saltelli, A., and Antonioli, F., 1985, Radioactive waste disposal in clay formation: A systematic approach to the problem of fractures and faults permeability, Radioactive Waste Management, 6(2), 101-120.
• Saltelli, A., and Offermann, P., 1986, About the modelling of advective transport with chemical reaction, Chemical Engineering Science, 41 (12).
• Saltelli, A., Natesan, K., and Chopra, O., 1982, An assessment of Carburization-Decarburization Kinetics of Fe-9Cr-Mo Steels in a Sodium Environment, Journal of Nuclear Materials, 110.
• Magini, M., Saltelli, A., Caminiti, R., 1981, Observations on the Structural Characterisation of the Dihydroxo-Octaaquodiiron (III) Dimer, Inorganic Chemistry, 20.
• Borello, A., Casadio, S., Saltelli, A., and G. Scibona, 1981, Susceptibility to the intergranular corrosion of Alloy 800, Corrosion NACE, 37 (9).
• Casadio, S., and Saltelli, A., 1979, About the corrosion mechanism for the stainless steel exposed in high temperature flowing sodium by a computer simulation approach, Journal of Nuclear Materials, 87.
• Danesi, P.R., Chiarizia, R., Pizzichini, M. Saltelli, A., 1978, Transfer rate of K ions from aqueous picrate solutions into 1,2, dichloroethane solutions of the macrocyclic polyether dibenzo-18-crown-6, Journal of Inorganic and Nuclear Chemistry, 40.
• Danesi, P.R., Chiarizia, R., and Saltelli, A., 1976, Transfer rate of some tervalent cations in the biphasic system HC10 water-dinonylnaphthalenesulfonic acid toluene, Journal of Inorganic and Nuclear Chemistry, 38